Asialink's Apec2020

APEC 2020 got an outing in the Asia:NZ Track II Newsletter edited by Andrew Butcher. I have included an edited version here which includes some interesting commentary by The Lowy Institute on the recent elections. Many of you will remember Allan Gyngell who heads The Lowy.

Editorial

This month we have a strong international flavour to the newsletter. We’ve delayed this month’s Track II newsletter by about a week so we could get fresh off-the-ground commentary about the Australian election results and their impact on the Asia-Pacific region from the Lowy Institute’s Dr Malcolm Cook. Also from Australia, Meileng Tam from AsiaLink at the University of Melbourne provides us commentary on APEC 2020. From Shanghai, Michael Powles contributes on his current research work. In addition, we have summaries of the East Asia Summit and two conferences on Asian economic integration and the foreign policy implications of energy security.

East Asia Summit
by Paki Ormsby, New Zealand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade

The New Zealand Prime Minister attended the East Asia Summit (EAS) Leaders meeting, held in Singapore on 21 November. Leaders signed the Singapore Declaration on Climate Change, Energy and the Environment, which helps prepare the ground for negotiations at Bali in December on a post Kyoto agreement on climate change. Other issues discussed by Leaders in Singapore included regional and international developments (including concerns about the situation in Myanmar and welcoming progress on the Korean Peninsula); and EAS cooperation (including the need for better coordination and management of the growing number of EAS activities).

Leaders welcomed the launch of an informal Senior EAS Finance Officials Dialogue, and called for an expeditious conclusion to the Doha round of Trade negotiations. On Myanmar, the Chair’s statement on the discussion expressed support for the United Nation’s role. There was strong support for the Prime Ministers’ call for the EAS to take a lead in promoting regional implementation of the UN Alliance of Civilisations initiative, which seeks to promote greater respect between civilisations, cultures and religions.

This was the third East Asia Summit, which has now cemented its place in Asian regional architecture. Our participation in the EAS enables New Zealand to promote increased regional integration and community building as well as complementing our bilateral relationships with ASEAN countries, China, Japan, South Korean, India and Australia.

While in Singapore the Prime Minister also met with China Premier Wen Jiabao; and UN Special Envoy to Myanmar Gambari.

EAS and ASEAN statements can be found at: www.13thaseansummit.org.sg


Managing Expectations: The Rudd Government and the Asia-Pacific
by Dr Malcolm Cook, Lowy Institute for International Policy, Sydney

The first change in government in Australia in over a decade and the generational shift it reflects has sparked a great amount of interest in East Asia signifying Australia’s increasing economic and strategic importance and East Asia’s fluid great power order. Travelling in China the week before the Election Day, I was greeted with a procession of smiling faces of Chinese foreign policy experts asking me if the polls could be trusted and that Kevin Rudd would be the next Prime Minister. All of them knew of the new Prime Minister’s own China background and also of his offspring’s China connections. It was palpable that there was an expectation that a Rudd (not so much a Labor Party-win but a Rudd-win) would mean closer Australia-China relations and less attention paid to Australia-Japan relations and larger ideas such as a Quad-lateral Security Dialogue between Australia, the United States, Japan and India.

Staying in Tokyo in the week after the election result, I felt as if the world had been turned upside down. Here, I was met with a procession of furrowed brows of Japan foreign policy experts repeating to me Kevin Rudd’s personal background in China and his offspring’s China connections. Again the talk was of the expected drift of Australian foreign policy away from Howard’s strong support of the bilateral relationship with Japan and of strengthening the US-Australia alliance by integrating it more with the US-Japan alliance and its growing regional and global focus. Observers in Japan are worried that under a Rudd government Australia-China relations may well eclipse Australia-Japan relations. A potential I think many I talked with in China silently hoped for.

China and Japan are deeply engaged in a rivalry for East Asian leadership ranging from supporting differing new security fora to competing East Asian free trade area ideas to different East Asian regional organisations. Many in China and Japan seem to be viewing the Australian election results through this lens. It may be good for the new government in Canberra to quickly manage hopes (in Beijing) and fears (in Tokyo) of significant foreign policy shifts in Australia. The fact that the only country (beyond Australia of course) mentioned in Kevin Rudd’s victory speech was the United States and the United States and the alliance was mentioned before Australia’s good friends in East Asia was a good first step. Reaffirming the centrality of the United States alliance to Australian foreign policy under a Rudd government early and often would help reassure the Australian population, the United States and Japan and may help quell overheated expectations among some in China. This is particularly important as the regional body Japan is championing, the East Asia Summit and the idea of an East Asian FTA includes Australia. China’s favoured East Asian body and free trade areas, the ASEAN+3, of course, excludes Australia.



APEC 2020: An AsiaLink conversation for Leaders,
by Meileng Tam, Director, Public Programs, AsiaLink

Asialink, an initiative of The Myer Foundation at The University of Melbourne, hosted the fourth of its Conversations series - APEC 2020: An Asialink Conversation for Leaders – following the conclusion of the 2007 Sydney APEC Summit in September. For the first time, the Asialink Conversations expanded beyond the Australia-ASEAN region to include delegates from each of the 21 APEC Economies.

As with the formal APEC proceedings, climate change emerged as a major concern. The delegates saw the debate on climate change moving from emissions reduction issues to a new focus on energy security. The delegates articulated that the successor to the current Kyoto system must involve a global approach, whereby the circumstances of both developed and developing economies are taken into account.

The Asialink Conversations emphasised the need to reform public education to ensure it gave students the skills necessary to survive and prosper in the global society. Delegates also identified cultural intelligence, a repertoire of skills including language and inter-cultural communication becoming increasingly important in our globalising world.

The value of having the Americas engaged in a dialogue with East Asia, Australasia and the Pacific Islands was highlighted at this Asialink Conversations. Traditionally Latin American countries look towards the USA to provide their connection to the wider world. But a delegate commented that “in comparing Latin America with USA or Europe, there seems to be few points in common. Here, at APEC 2020, it feels that Latin American countries have much more in common with the challenges, difficulties and opportunities that South East Asian countries face.”

Finally Asialink conversations delegates urged future leaders of APEC to ensure host communities are included in its program. They advocated a strategy to explain and demonstrate APEC’s relevance to the welfare of the citizens it purports to serve.

Full reports of the Asialink Conversations are available at Asialink’s website, www.asialink.unimelb.edu.au , by searching “Conversations”.


Summary of Conference on Asian Economic Integration,
by Brian Lynch, NZIIA

Eighteen regional Track Two organisations and multilateral agencies participated in a conference in New Delhi 12-13 November 2007. Around 150 took part. New Zealand was represented by the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs.

Director, Brian Lynch, gave papers on ‘Asia’s New Role in the Global Economy, the Relevance of Asian Economic Integration’ and on ‘The Strategic Relevance of Asian Regionalism’ ,with the latter focussing on the deployment of ‘soft power’ in the Asian setting. Other Track Two participants came from institutions in China, India, Japan, Korea, Philippines and Thailand.

The meeting produced a set of recommendations to be submitted to the East Asia Leaders Summit in Singapore, 21 November 2007. These covered a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Arrangement of East Asia, Asian Monetary and Financial Architecture, Cooperation and Coordination among Asian Think-Tanks, and Institution building for Education, Educational, Cultural and Media Exchanges.

Copies of his papers and of the conference Report can be obtained from Brian Lynch at brian.lynch@vuw.ac.nz.


Summary of Conference on the Foreign Policy Implications of Energy Security,
by Brian Lynch, NZIIA

75 attended an all-day seminar in Wellington on 21 November 2007 hosted by the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs (NZIIA). Those attending were drawn from twenty diplomatic missions, eighteen government departments, and the private sector.

Presentations covered New Zealand’s and the global energy situation and outlook including shifts in the level of dependence on traditional energy sources; the interface between energy factors and climate change; the relationship between energy security and national security; and the influence that concerns over future reliability and affordability of energy supplies has upon the conduct of foreign relations.

There was agreement that in New Zealand and internationally, the energy scene is in transition from one era to which people have been long accustomed to one which is unfamiliar and possibly fraught. The situation is complex, driven by consumer and commercial demand, emerging technologies, the discovery of hitherto unimagined energy forms and the adaptive skills of the human species. It calls for enlightened global political leadership to prevent unhealthy levels of competition leading to dispute and conflict. NZIIA will publish the proceedings of the seminar.

Profile: Michael Powles

Michael Powles, formerly with MFAT, has lived and worked in the Pacific and China and is a Visiting Fellow with NZ AI and Senior Fellow with CSS. Currently in Shanghai, he is working on a book about China and the Pacific for publication next year. A brief synopsis:

China’s re-emergence as a major power is likely to change drastically the geopolitics of the Pacific. While China’s rise could well be peaceful and its relationships generally cooperative, there are many uncertainties ahead for the Pacific. The book discusses factors driving China’s foreign policies, including towards Oceania, outlines some of the challenges China’s predominant role in the Pacific will bring, and also the opportunities, including for Pacific Island economies. Successfully meeting the challenges and taking advantage of the opportunities is likely to require close regional coordination.



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